2013 · Week 3

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

3·23

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+7.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.062
  • 37.6%Success rate46.7%
  • -0.049EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.72CPOE-1.37
  • 31.1%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.05
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.1 points. NE are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NE @ TB28–23NE
2021 · W4TB @ NE19–17TB
2017 · W5NE @ TB19–14NE
2009 · W7NE @ TB35–7NE
2005 · W15TB @ NE0–28NE
2000 · W1TB @ NE21–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NE
NEQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:15755Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 10:11518Punt0–0
TBQ1 7:481451Field goal3–0
NEQ1 1:4732Punt3–0
TBQ1 0:18721Turnover on downs3–0
NEQ2 12:441166Touchdown3–7
TBQ2 7:31742Turnover on downs3–7
NEQ2 4:201334Touchdown3–14
TBQ2 0:47411Turnover3–14
NEQ2 0:1128Field goal3–17
TBQ3 15:0047Punt3–17
NEQ3 12:56870Turnover3–17
TBQ3 9:3438Punt3–17
NEQ3 7:53736Field goal3–20
TBQ3 3:381251Turnover on downs3–20
NEQ4 13:03951Field goal3–23
TBQ4 8:1931Punt3–23
NEQ4 7:381065Turnover on downs3–23
TBQ4 2:57876Turnover on downs3–23
NEQ4 1:2500End of half3–23

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman19/4123601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin20884.40
Mike James155.00
Josh Freeman144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams59650
Eric Page35550
Kevin Ogletree26350
Vincent Jackson36340
Doug Martin26200
Brian Leonard12170
Timothy Wright1260
Nate Byham1130

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3622521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount14654.60
Brandon Bolden35117.00
Stevan Ridley11353.20
Tom Brady551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Dobson710520
Brandon Bolden56490
Julian Edelman77440
Kenbrell Thompkins37412
Michael Hoomanawanui22310
Stevan Ridley1180
Zach Sudfeld0200
Josh Boyce0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.0%5.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.17
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+7.50