2013 · Week 3
Final
Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.062
- 37.6%Success rate46.7%
- -0.049EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.72CPOE-1.37
- 31.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.34Points / drive2.05
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.1 points. NE are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 19/41 | 236 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Eric Page | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/36 | 225 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dobson | 7 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 3 | 7 | 41 | 2 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Boyce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.17
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.50