2021 · Week 4

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

19·17

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

49.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.143EPA / play+0.070
  • 49.9%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback+0.133
  • +0.024EPA / rush-0.012
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +1.50CPOE+2.93
  • 48.0%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.51Points / drive2.41
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.1 points. NE are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NE @ TB28–23NE
2017 · W5NE @ TB19–14NE
2013 · W3TB @ NE3–23NE
2009 · W7NE @ TB35–7NE
2005 · W15TB @ NE0–28NE
2000 · W1TB @ NE21–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NE
NEQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:54634Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:5533Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:42971Field goal3–0
NEQ1 4:49417Turnover3–0
TBQ1 3:39943Missed field goal3–0
NEQ2 14:491574Touchdown3–7
TBQ2 8:28610Punt3–7
NEQ2 4:54524Punt3–7
TBQ2 1:49769Field goal6–7
NEQ2 0:1300End of half6–7
TBQ3 15:00410Punt6–7
NEQ3 12:46310Turnover6–7
TBQ3 11:1138Punt6–7
NEQ3 9:413-11Punt6–7
TBQ3 7:17847Touchdown13–7
NEQ3 3:29777Touchdown13–14
TBQ4 14:571468Field goal16–14
NEQ4 7:58766Field goal16–17
TBQ4 4:34824Field goal19–17
NEQ4 1:57623Missed field goal19–17
TBQ4 0:5500End of half19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/4326900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette20924.60
Ronald Jones6254.21
Tom Brady430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans712750
Antonio Brown711630
Chris Godwin Jr.35550
Leonard Fournette35470
Cameron Brate26290
O.J. Howard0100
Codey McElroy0100
Tyler Johnson0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones31/4027521
Jakobi Meyers2/24500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nelson Agholor144.00
Brandon Bolden100.00
J.J. Taylor100.00
Mac Jones1-1-1.00
Damien Harris4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers812700
Kendrick Bourne55580
Nelson Agholor35550
Brandon Bolden66510
Hunter Henry45321
Damien Harris22300
Jonnu Smith35141
N'Keal Harry11100
J.J. Taylor1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.07