2021 · Week 4
Final
Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play+0.070
- 49.9%Success rate48.6%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.133
- +0.024EPA / rush-0.012
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.1%
- +1.50CPOE+2.93
- 48.0%Third-down rate45.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.51Points / drive2.41
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.1 points. NE are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/43 | 269 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Codey McElroy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 31/40 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2/2 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07