2017 · Week 5
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play+0.004
- 49.2%Success rate44.2%
- +0.254EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.167
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- +3.49CPOE+3.38
- 40.8%Third-down rate42.9%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.52Points / drive1.79
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.1 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/40 | 303 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 8 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| James White | 7 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 26/46 | 334 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 13 | 74 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.33