2017 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

19·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.137EPA / play+0.004
  • 49.2%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.254EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.042EPA / rush-0.167
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +3.49CPOE+3.38
  • 40.8%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.79
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.1 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NE @ TB28–23NE
2021 · W4TB @ NE19–17TB
2013 · W3TB @ NE3–23NE
2009 · W7NE @ TB35–7NE
2005 · W15TB @ NE0–28NE
2000 · W1TB @ NE21–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–TB
NEQ1 15:00522Turnover0–0
TBQ1 12:57411Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:2835Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:32417Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:311589Field goal3–0
TBQ1 1:2131Punt3–0
NEQ1 0:2136Punt3–0
TBQ2 13:381383Touchdown3–7
NEQ2 8:261090Touchdown10–7
TBQ2 3:4231Punt10–7
NEQ2 2:13622Field goal13–7
TBQ2 0:40310Missed field goal13–7
TBQ3 15:0037Punt13–7
NEQ3 13:20972Field goal16–7
TBQ3 9:55728Punt16–7
NEQ3 6:44954Turnover16–7
TBQ3 3:11622Missed field goal16–7
NEQ4 14:14828Punt16–7
TBQ4 10:401194Missed field goal16–7
NEQ4 5:3637Punt16–7
TBQ4 4:26974Touchdown16–14
NEQ4 2:0937Field goal19–14
TBQ4 1:10561End of half19–14

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4030311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis7537.60
Mike Gillislee12524.30
Tom Brady252.50
James White231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks58850
Danny Amendola88770
Chris Hogan811741
James White79570
Dion Lewis22100
Jacob Hollister0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston26/4633410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin13745.71
Jameis Winston3113.70
Charles Sims133.00
Jacquizz Rodgers320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson591060
Cameron Brate59681
Adam Humphries35510
Mike Evans58490
Charles Sims57310
Jacquizz Rodgers11130
Doug Martin1380
Chris Godwin Jr.1280
O.J. Howard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.33