2005 · Week 15
Final
Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
36
Model margin
+3.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.076
- 39.7%Success rate44.6%
- -0.064EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.083
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- 38.9%Third-down rate42.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.36Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.1 points. NE are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 21/34 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 14 | 23 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/31 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Givens | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74