2009 · Week 7

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

35·7

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Johnson

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NE -15.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.156
  • 49.1%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.223EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.188
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +3.43CPOE-5.15
  • 44.2%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.06
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.1 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NE @ TB28–23NE
2021 · W4TB @ NE19–17TB
2017 · W5NE @ TB19–14NE
2013 · W3TB @ NE3–23NE
2005 · W15TB @ NE0–28NE
2000 · W1TB @ NE21–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–TB
TBQ1 15:00517Opp touchdown7–0
TBQ1 12:26742Turnover7–0
NEQ1 9:0038Punt7–0
TBQ1 6:40412Punt7–0
NEQ1 4:58672Touchdown14–0
TBQ1 2:1630Punt14–0
NEQ1 0:5627Turnover14–0
NEQ1 0:0000Turnover14–0
NEQ2 15:00312Turnover14–0
TBQ2 13:3630Punt14–0
NEQ2 12:16354Touchdown21–0
TBQ2 11:1837Punt21–0
NEQ2 9:4126Turnover21–0
TBQ2 8:4839Punt21–0
NEQ2 6:28726Punt21–0
TBQ2 3:06667Touchdown21–7
NEQ2 1:14412Punt21–7
TBQ2 0:1328Turnover21–7
NEQ3 15:001293Touchdown28–7
TBQ3 9:1334Punt28–7
NEQ3 7:48314Punt28–7
TBQ3 6:40953Punt28–7
NEQ3 2:3432Punt28–7
TBQ3 1:3634Punt28–7
NEQ3 0:281190Touchdown35–7
TBQ4 9:25518Punt35–7
NEQ4 6:34721Punt35–7
TBQ4 1:504-1Turnover on downs35–7
NEQ4 0:5900End of half35–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3230832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney13433.31
Kevin Faulk2199.50
Brian Hoyer3175.70
Brandon Tate11111.00
Wes Welker166.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis760.90
Tom Brady155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker10101071
Randy Moss58690
Sam Aiken23661
Benjamin Watson12351
Chris Baker33260
Kevin Faulk2350
Laurence Maroney0100
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100
Brandon Tate0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson9/2615613
Josh Freeman2/41600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Ward13483.70
Cadillac Williams11292.60
Josh Johnson177.00
Josh Freeman155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammie Stroughter38630
Antonio Bryant29511
Cadillac Williams22280
Brian Clark11130
Kellen Winslow2590
Derrick Ward1180
Jerramy Stevens0100
Michael Clayton0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -15.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

0.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.60