2009 · Week 7
Final
Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
NE -15.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.156
- 49.1%Success rate36.1%
- +0.223EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +3.43CPOE-5.15
- 44.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.12Points / drive1.06
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.1 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/32 | 308 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 10 | 10 | 107 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 2 | 3 | 66 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Chris Baker | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 9/26 | 156 | 1 | 3 |
| Josh Freeman | 2/4 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 2 | 9 | 51 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
0.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.60