Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.028
- 42.2%Success rate39.3%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.182
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 37.7%Third-down rate28.9%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 1.49Points / drive1.12
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–1 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. ARI are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 7:43 | 8 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 3:32 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 14:57 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 11:24 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q2 8:38 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 7:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q2 6:54 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| ARI | Q2 5:04 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| DEN | Q2 4:50 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| ARI | Q2 3:23 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 9–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:36 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q2 0:32 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 17–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q3 12:36 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| DEN | Q3 12:01 | 1 | 34 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| ARI | Q3 11:51 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 24–10 |
| DEN | Q3 9:12 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| ARI | Q3 5:53 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 31–10 |
| DEN | Q3 3:18 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 38–10 |
| ARI | Q4 13:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 38–10 |
| DEN | Q4 12:59 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 38–10 |
| ARI | Q4 7:53 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| DEN | Q4 4:54 | 11 | 26 | End of half | 38–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 22/31 | 242 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 14 | 16 | 162 | 2 |
| Desmond Clark | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/28 | 242 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 8 | 11 | 145 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.94