2014 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

20·41

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DEN -8

Total

47

Model margin

+5.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.024EPA / play+0.083
  • 39.1%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.188
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -4.59CPOE+3.06
  • 40.7%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.29
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–1 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DEN @ ARI30–16DEN
2022 · W15ARI @ DEN15–24DEN
2018 · W7DEN @ ARI45–10DEN
2010 · W14DEN @ ARI13–43ARI
2006 · W15DEN @ ARI37–20DEN
2002 · W17ARI @ DEN7–37DEN
2001 · W2DEN @ ARI38–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DEN
ARIQ1 15:001249Field goal3–0
DENQ1 9:091280Touchdown3–7
ARIQ1 4:43950Field goal6–7
DENQ1 1:4138Punt6–7
ARIQ1 0:2537Punt6–7
DENQ2 14:0620Turnover6–7
ARIQ2 13:2546Punt6–7
DENQ2 10:43890Touchdown6–14
ARIQ2 7:3039Punt6–14
DENQ2 5:2530Turnover12–14
ARIQ2 4:4215Touchdown13–14
DENQ2 4:37418Punt13–14
ARIQ2 2:3036Punt13–20
DENQ2 1:48186Touchdown13–21
ARIQ2 1:3737Punt13–21
DENQ2 0:5334End of half13–21
DENQ3 15:0043Punt13–21
ARIQ3 13:0432Punt13–21
DENQ3 12:05740Field goal13–24
ARIQ3 9:333-10Punt13–24
DENQ3 7:16417Missed field goal13–24
ARIQ3 6:0031Punt13–24
DENQ3 4:5639Punt19–24
ARIQ3 3:16181Touchdown20–24
DENQ3 3:03763Field goal20–27
ARIQ4 13:4837Punt20–27
DENQ4 12:20880Touchdown20–34
ARIQ4 7:473-4Punt20–34
DENQ4 6:40546Touchdown20–41
ARIQ4 4:333-1Punt20–41
DENQ4 3:28526End of half20–41

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton11/2611800
Logan Thomas1/88110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington16322.01
Stepfan Taylor166.00
Robert Hughes100.00
Ted Ginn1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Ellington471121
Larry Fitzgerald37570
John Carlson23190
Michael Floyd1770
John Brown2740
Ted Ginn0200
Rob Housler0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4747942

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman15644.30
Juwan Thompson3155.01
Emmanuel Sanders284.00
Montee Ball671.20
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas8162262
Emmanuel Sanders791010
Julius Thomas67662
Wes Welker79580
Jacob Tamme11170
Montee Ball23110
Andre Caldwell0100
Ronnie Hillman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.23