Closing spread
DEN -8
Total
47
Model margin
+5.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.024EPA / play+0.083
- 39.1%Success rate46.3%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.188
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- -4.59CPOE+3.06
- 40.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.54Points / drive2.29
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
DEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.4 points. DEN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 11/26 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1/8 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 16 | 32 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 4 | 7 | 112 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/47 | 479 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 16 | 226 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 9 | 101 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 7 | 66 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.23