Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+18.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapCardinals
- -0.378EPA / play+0.139
- 36.0%Success rate48.6%
- -0.442EPA / dropback+0.270
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.044
- 2.0%Explosive rate5.6%
- -7.78CPOE+4.61
- 16.7%Third-down rate46.2%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 0.83Points / drive2.35
- 4.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
DEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.4 points. ARI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+16.92
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+18.90