2026 · Week 7

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

30·16

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCardinals
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.007
  • 38.8%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.095EPA / rush-0.072
  • 6.9%Explosive rate5.2%
  • -2.74CPOE+0.66
  • 29.8%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.94
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–1 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. ARI are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15ARI @ DEN15–24DEN
2018 · W7DEN @ ARI45–10DEN
2014 · W5ARI @ DEN20–41DEN
2010 · W14DEN @ ARI13–43ARI
2006 · W15DEN @ ARI37–20DEN
2002 · W17ARI @ DEN7–37DEN
2001 · W2DEN @ ARI38–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–ARI
DENQ1 15:00839Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 11:0033Punt3–0
DENQ1 9:5149Punt3–0
ARIQ1 7:37510Punt3–0
DENQ1 5:25927Field goal6–0
ARIQ1 1:08526Field goal6–3
DENQ2 14:1639Punt6–3
ARIQ2 12:251370Field goal6–6
DENQ2 4:30265Touchdown13–6
ARIQ2 3:4338Punt13–6
DENQ2 2:0538Punt13–6
ARIQ2 1:4230Punt13–6
DENQ2 0:1933End of half13–6
ARIQ3 15:00728Punt13–6
DENQ3 11:57362Touchdown20–6
ARIQ3 10:261253Touchdown20–13
DENQ3 3:50771Touchdown27–13
ARIQ4 15:00634Turnover on downs27–13
DENQ4 12:501058Field goal30–13
ARIQ4 8:39952Field goal30–16
DENQ4 6:21728Punt30–16
ARIQ4 3:541569Turnover on downs30–16
DENQ4 0:5200End of half30–16

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix15/2922210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix77310.41
Jonah Coleman9546.00
J.K. Dobbins6233.81
RJ Harvey362.00
Marvin Mims Jr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
RJ Harvey22541
Marvin Mims Jr.22530
Jaylen Waddle47480
Courtland Sutton35450
Jonah Coleman22150
Lil'Jordan Humphrey1150
Evan Engram1320
Adam Trautman0100
Troy Franklin0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett27/4827210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight7486.90
Tyler Allgeier8192.40
Jacoby Brissett7162.30
Michael Wilson2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride10131111
Michael Wilson48550
Jalen Brooks16350
Tyler Allgeier33300
Elijah Higgins33170
Bam Knight35150
Kendrick Bourne3690

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.49