Closing spread
DEN -13.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play+0.065
- 38.4%Success rate49.4%
- -0.052EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.160EPA / rush+0.062
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- 43.6%Third-down rate37.9%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.06Points / drive1.76
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
DEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.4 points. DEN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/27 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3/6 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Jones | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 4 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Jason McAddley | 3 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 16/24 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 24 | 228 | 9.5 | 2 |
| Mike Anderson | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 9 | 112 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Patrick Hape | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.03
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.58