2010 · Week 14

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

13·43

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DEN -4

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCardinals
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.220
  • 39.3%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.248
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.165
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.61CPOE-9.59
  • 31.6%Third-down rate27.4%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.06
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–1 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. ARI are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DEN @ ARI30–16DEN
2022 · W15ARI @ DEN15–24DEN
2018 · W7DEN @ ARI45–10DEN
2014 · W5ARI @ DEN20–41DEN
2006 · W15DEN @ ARI37–20DEN
2002 · W17ARI @ DEN7–37DEN
2001 · W2DEN @ ARI38–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–ARI
DENQ1 15:001073Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 10:3631Punt3–0
DENQ1 9:3733Punt3–0
ARIQ1 8:3930Punt3–0
DENQ1 7:36517Turnover3–0
ARIQ1 5:3335Field goal3–3
DENQ1 4:353-3Turnover3–3
ARIQ1 3:1434Punt3–3
DENQ1 1:353-2Punt3–3
ARIQ2 14:48632Field goal3–6
DENQ2 11:50521Turnover3–6
ARIQ2 10:24528Punt3–6
DENQ2 8:12417Turnover3–6
ARIQ2 6:03524Touchdown3–13
DENQ2 4:0263Punt3–13
ARIQ2 1:44835Field goal3–16
DENQ2 0:0200End of half3–16
ARIQ3 15:00967Field goal3–19
DENQ3 9:40533Missed field goal3–19
ARIQ3 7:11717Punt3–19
DENQ3 4:2337Punt3–19
ARIQ3 2:54718Missed field goal3–19
DENQ3 1:0310Turnover3–19
ARIQ3 0:5938Field goal3–22
DENQ4 14:5534Punt3–22
ARIQ4 13:4713Turnover3–22
DENQ4 13:36613Field goal6–22
ARIQ4 11:20974Touchdown6–29
DENQ4 6:07954Touchdown13–29
ARIQ4 3:31341Touchdown13–36
DENQ4 3:0936Opp touchdown13–43
DENQ4 2:42731Turnover on downs13–43

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton19/4116603

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno19814.31
Lance Ball8384.80
Eddie Royal284.00
Kyle Orton252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney38480
Eddie Royal49460
Brandon Lloyd36320
Knowshon Moreno57320
Eric Decker1180
Daniel Graham1530
Correll Buckhalter1200
Lance Ball13-30

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton15/3714600
Steve Breaston0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower181488.22
Steve Breaston11717.00
Chris Wells6162.70
LaRod Stephens-Howling4133.30
John Skelton393.00
Jay Feely155.01
Early Doucet133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald611720
Early Doucet28240
Steve Breaston26180
LaRod Stephens-Howling22110
Stephen Spach1190
Jason Wright1270
Andre Roberts1250
Tim Hightower0200
Jim Dray0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.34