Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.220
- 39.3%Success rate37.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.248
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.165
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.61CPOE-9.59
- 31.6%Third-down rate27.4%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.06
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
DEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.4 points. ARI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 19/41 | 166 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 15/37 | 146 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 18 | 148 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Feely | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.05
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34