2018 · Week 7

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

45·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCardinals
  • -0.020EPA / play-0.240
  • 43.4%Success rate35.6%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.193
  • 9.9%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -0.98CPOE-7.13
  • 33.1%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.60Points / drive0.92
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–1 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. ARI are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DEN @ ARI30–16DEN
2022 · W15ARI @ DEN15–24DEN
2014 · W5ARI @ DEN20–41DEN
2010 · W14DEN @ ARI13–43ARI
2006 · W15DEN @ ARI37–20DEN
2002 · W17ARI @ DEN7–37DEN
2001 · W2DEN @ ARI38–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0020Opp touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 14:0137Punt7–0
DENQ1 12:19772Touchdown14–0
ARIQ1 8:38846Field goal14–3
DENQ1 5:1839Punt14–3
ARIQ1 3:2339Opp touchdown21–3
ARIQ1 2:0232Punt27–3
DENQ2 14:51164Touchdown28–3
ARIQ2 14:40519Punt28–3
DENQ2 12:3532Punt28–3
ARIQ2 11:363-10Punt28–3
DENQ2 10:42516Punt28–3
ARIQ2 8:1338Punt28–3
DENQ2 7:001774Touchdown35–3
ARIQ2 0:2111End of half35–3
DENQ3 15:00411Turnover35–3
ARIQ3 12:441158Touchdown35–10
DENQ3 8:33415Punt35–10
ARIQ3 5:5136Turnover35–10
DENQ3 5:07343Touchdown42–10
ARIQ3 3:3230Punt42–10
DENQ3 1:5039Punt42–10
ARIQ4 14:54962Turnover42–10
DENQ4 10:2038Punt42–10
ARIQ4 8:012-9Turnover42–10
DENQ4 7:483-11Field goal45–10
ARIQ4 5:35724Turnover on downs45–10
DENQ4 1:5400End of half45–10

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum14/2116111
Emmanuel Sanders1/12810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay14906.41
Royce Freeman13372.81
Case Keenum441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders671021
Demaryius Thomas56420
Courtland Sutton13281
Matt LaCosse11120
Phillip Lindsay1160
Devontae Booker11-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen21/3919413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson14392.80
Josh Rosen11414.00
Chase Edmonds591.80
J.J. Nelson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk36570
Larry Fitzgerald48401
Chad Williams48340
David Johnson33310
Ricky Seals-Jones24120
Chase Edmonds33120
J.J. Nelson2480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.40