Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.240
- 43.4%Success rate35.6%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.193
- 9.9%Explosive rate6.0%
- -0.98CPOE-7.13
- 33.1%Third-down rate29.0%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.60Points / drive0.92
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
DEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.4 points. ARI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 14/21 | 161 | 1 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1/1 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 7 | 102 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 21/39 | 194 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Chad Williams | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.40