Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.077
- 40.7%Success rate39.4%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.124
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.70CPOE-1.65
- 35.4%Third-down rate29.1%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 1.60Points / drive1.34
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
DEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.4 points. DEN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trace McSorley | 7/15 | 95 | 0 | 2 |
| Colt McCoy | 13/21 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Trace McSorley | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Rypien | 21/26 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 24 | 130 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brett Rypien | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.81
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.48