2022 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Colt McCoy

15·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Brett Rypien

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.077
  • 40.7%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.124
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.70CPOE-1.65
  • 35.4%Third-down rate29.1%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.34
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–1 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DEN @ ARI30–16DEN
2018 · W7DEN @ ARI45–10DEN
2014 · W5ARI @ DEN20–41DEN
2010 · W14DEN @ ARI13–43ARI
2006 · W15DEN @ ARI37–20DEN
2002 · W17ARI @ DEN7–37DEN
2001 · W2DEN @ ARI38–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DEN
DENQ1 15:001051Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 10:2734Punt0–3
DENQ1 9:00720Punt0–3
ARIQ1 4:30515Turnover0–3
DENQ1 2:2534Missed field goal0–3
ARIQ1 0:321045Field goal3–3
DENQ2 10:353-5Punt3–3
ARIQ2 8:5033Punt3–3
DENQ2 6:3032Punt3–3
ARIQ2 5:1039Punt3–3
DENQ2 3:50428Punt3–3
ARIQ2 1:393-1Punt3–3
DENQ2 1:09426Turnover3–3
ARIQ2 0:38412Field goal6–3
ARIQ3 15:001348Field goal9–3
DENQ3 8:55780Touchdown9–10
ARIQ3 5:58310Punt9–10
DENQ3 4:34936Turnover9–10
ARIQ4 15:0032Punt9–10
DENQ4 13:55751Touchdown9–17
ARIQ4 11:0032Turnover9–17
DENQ4 10:1025Touchdown9–24
ARIQ4 9:29778Touchdown15–24
DENQ4 6:01828Punt15–24
ARIQ4 1:48313Turnover15–24
DENQ4 0:5500End of half15–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trace McSorley7/159502
Colt McCoy13/217801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner16633.91
Trace McSorley188.00
Colt McCoy221.00
Keaontay Ingram100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins711600
Trey McBride45550
James Conner35280
Marquise Brown48190
Maxx Williams22110
A.J. Green0200
Robbie Chosen0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Rypien21/2619711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray241305.41
Marlon Mack5377.41
Devine Ozigbo221.00
Brett Rypien2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy78760
Brandon Johnson34300
Eric Tomlinson33281
Marlon Mack44260
Latavius Murray11120
Greg Dulcich12110
Freddie Swain1190
Eric Saubert1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.81
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.48