Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.045
- 40.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.37CPOE-3.07
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.4%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.52Points / drive1.52
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–1 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. ARI are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:26 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:48 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:01 | 16 | 78 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| ARI | Q2 12:59 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| DEN | Q2 8:12 | 2 | -12 | Opp touchdown | 13–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:53 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| ARI | Q2 0:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 16–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:21 | 3 | 29 | End of half | 16–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| ARI | Q3 14:10 | 3 | 11 | Missed field goal | 16–10 |
| DEN | Q3 11:54 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| ARI | Q3 8:54 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| DEN | Q3 2:19 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 30–13 |
| ARI | Q4 13:51 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 30–20 |
| DEN | Q4 7:46 | 12 | 33 | Touchdown | 37–20 |
| ARI | Q4 2:44 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 37–20 |
| DEN | Q4 2:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 37–20 |
| ARI | Q4 1:39 | 8 | 68 | End of half | 37–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/31 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Tatum Bell | 18 | 29 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 20/35 | 214 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08