Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.045
- 40.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.37CPOE-3.07
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.4%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.52Points / drive1.52
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–1 since 1999
DEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52.4 points. ARI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/31 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Tatum Bell | 18 | 29 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 20/35 | 214 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08