Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
34
Model margin
+1.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 12/25 | 193 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Clint Stoerner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 4 | 83 | 1 |
| Wane McGarity | 5 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.