Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
34
Model margin
+1.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 14:11 | 9 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:23 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:22 | 10 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q1 3:43 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:12 | 4 | 27 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| DAL | Q2 13:30 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:12 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 17–7 |
| DAL | Q2 10:42 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:58 | 6 | 85 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| DAL | Q2 3:55 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–14 |
| DAL | Q2 0:25 | 4 | -3 | Turnover on downs | 20–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 33 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| DAL | Q3 14:15 | 3 | 17 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:40 | 10 | 83 | Touchdown | 26–14 |
| DAL | Q3 6:55 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 26–14 |
| LAC | Q3 4:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 26–14 |
| DAL | Q3 3:55 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 26–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:53 | 10 | 81 | Field goal | 29–14 |
| DAL | Q4 12:53 | 7 | 30 | Touchdown | 29–21 |
| LAC | Q4 9:21 | 9 | 46 | Missed field goal | 29–21 |
| DAL | Q4 2:58 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 29–21 |
| LAC | Q4 2:35 | 6 | 10 | Field goal | 32–21 |
| DAL | Q4 1:09 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 32–21 |
| LAC | Q4 0:26 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 32–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 12/25 | 193 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Clint Stoerner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 4 | 83 | 1 |
| Wane McGarity | 5 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.