2021 · Week 2

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

20·17

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

55

Model margin

-0.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapChargers
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.088
  • 46.8%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +1.99CPOE-0.71
  • 43.7%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 2.44Points / drive2.55
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44 points. LAC are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LAC @ DAL34–17CHARGERS
2023 · W6DAL @ LAC20–17DAL
2017 · W12LAC @ DAL28–6CHARGERS
2013 · W4DAL @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2009 · W14SD @ DAL20–17CHARGERS
2005 · W1DAL @ SD28–24DAL
2001 · W2SD @ DAL32–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–LAC
DALQ1 15:001674Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 8:09342Turnover7–0
DALQ1 7:00325Turnover7–0
LACQ1 5:56417Field goal7–3
DALQ1 3:32775Touchdown14–3
LACQ1 0:171297Touchdown14–11
DALQ2 9:49951Turnover on downs14–11
LACQ2 4:531343Missed field goal14–11
DALQ2 0:03148End of half14–11
LACQ3 15:001366Field goal14–14
DALQ3 9:22733Punt14–14
LACQ3 5:021374Turnover14–14
DALQ3 0:05964Field goal17–14
LACQ4 10:251269Field goal17–17
DALQ4 3:541049Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/2723701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard131098.41
Ezekiel Elliott16714.41
CeeDee Lamb11313.00
Cedrick Wilson Jr.155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb89810
Blake Jarwin34370
Tony Pollard33310
Ezekiel Elliott22260
Amari Cooper35240
Cedrick Wilson Jr.22200
Dalton Schultz22180

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert31/4133812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler9546.00
Justin Jackson4215.30
Justin Herbert4123.00
Jalen Guyton199.00
Larry Rountree III1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen481080
Mike Williams710911
Austin Ekeler99610
Jared Cook35280
Josh Palmer22210
Jalen Guyton22130
Stephen Anderson2290
Justin Jackson1180
Larry Rountree III11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.08