Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
55
Model margin
-0.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.088
- 46.8%Success rate47.4%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.99CPOE-0.71
- 43.7%Third-down rate45.7%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 2.44Points / drive2.55
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. LAC are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/27 | 237 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 13 | 109 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 31/41 | 338 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 7 | 10 | 91 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.08