Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play-0.070
- 48.0%Success rate41.4%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.9%
- +3.68CPOE-1.84
- 49.6%Third-down rate38.3%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.67Points / drive1.75
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. LAC are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/30 | 272 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 7 | 117 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 10 | 24 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/37 | 227 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.96