2023 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

20·17

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-3.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapChargers
  • +0.121EPA / play-0.070
  • 48.0%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.242
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +3.68CPOE-1.84
  • 49.6%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.75
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44 points. LAC are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LAC @ DAL34–17CHARGERS
2021 · W2DAL @ LAC20–17DAL
2017 · W12LAC @ DAL28–6CHARGERS
2013 · W4DAL @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2009 · W14SD @ DAL20–17CHARGERS
2005 · W1DAL @ SD28–24DAL
2001 · W2SD @ DAL32–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–LAC
DALQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:54647Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 10:31975Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 6:2133Punt7–7
DALQ1 4:42531Punt7–7
LACQ1 1:471136Punt7–7
DALQ2 11:3536Punt7–7
LACQ2 9:3143Punt7–7
DALQ2 7:261150Turnover on downs7–7
LACQ2 2:23843Punt7–7
DALQ2 0:59652Field goal10–7
LACQ3 15:001578Turnover on downs10–7
DALQ3 7:423-2Punt10–7
LACQ3 6:10943Field goal10–10
DALQ3 1:08985Touchdown17–10
LACQ4 11:19719Punt17–10
LACQ4 8:4155Touchdown17–17
DALQ4 7:111354Field goal20–17
LACQ4 2:194-5Turnover20–17
DALQ4 1:2200End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3027210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dak Prescott7405.71
Tony Pollard15302.00
Brandin Cooks11414.00
Rico Dowdle3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb771170
Tony Pollard67800
Brandin Cooks44361
Michael Gallup310240
Jake Ferguson11150
Sean McKeon0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3722721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14271.90
Justin Herbert6203.30
Gerald Everett122.00
Joshua Kelley122.00
Isaiah Spiller122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen711851
Josh Palmer47600
Austin Ekeler46350
Donald Parham23190
Gerald Everett35161
Justin Herbert11100
Joshua Kelley1220
Quentin Johnston0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-2.96