2025 · Week 16

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

34·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.109
  • 43.6%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.007
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.01CPOE+1.89
  • 46.7%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.53
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6DAL @ LAC20–17DAL
2021 · W2DAL @ LAC20–17DAL
2017 · W12LAC @ DAL28–6CHARGERS
2013 · W4DAL @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2009 · W14SD @ DAL20–17CHARGERS
2005 · W1DAL @ SD28–24DAL
2001 · W2SD @ DAL32–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DAL
DALQ1 15:001079Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 10:20665Touchdown7–7
DALQ1 6:431666Field goal7–10
LACQ2 14:04887Touchdown14–10
DALQ2 9:45465Touchdown14–17
LACQ2 8:081681Touchdown21–17
DALQ2 0:1921End of half21–17
LACQ3 15:00557Field goal24–17
DALQ3 11:51621Punt24–17
LACQ3 9:0439Punt24–17
DALQ3 7:25970Turnover on downs24–17
LACQ3 2:151495Field goal27–17
DALQ4 8:57618Turnover on downs27–17
LACQ4 6:57646Touchdown34–17
DALQ4 4:48418Turnover34–17
LACQ4 4:00514Turnover on downs34–17
DALQ4 0:3312End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert23/2930020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton16855.31
Justin Herbert8425.31
Hassan Haskins4143.50
Kimani Vidal5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston451041
Tre Harris45540
Keenan Allen55440
Ladd McConkey46431
Will Dissly33280
KeAndre Lambert-Smith11100
Omarion Hampton12100
Oronde Gadsden II1170

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3024420
Joe Milton III2/21100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams9343.80
Malik Davis8232.90
Dak Prescott2147.00
KaVontae Turpin2136.50
Joe Milton III177.00
Hunter Luepke100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens791301
CeeDee Lamb67510
Jake Ferguson34190
Ryan Flournoy22181
KaVontae Turpin24140
Hunter Luepke12140
Javonte Williams2390
Jonathan Mingo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.55