Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.109
- 43.6%Success rate47.2%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.01CPOE+1.89
- 46.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.10Points / drive2.53
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/29 | 300 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Hassan Haskins | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 5 | 104 | 1 |
| Tre Harris | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/30 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
| Joe Milton III | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Joe Milton III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 7 | 9 | 130 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.55