Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutAlfonso BooneDEKnee· DNP
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulEric WeddleSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· Full
- ProbableKris DielmanGNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableLegedu NaaneeWRFoot· Full
- ProbableLuis CastilloDECalf· Full
- ProbableMarcus McNeillTAnkle· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableQuentin JammerCBToe· Full
- ProbableShaun PhillipsLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Cowboys
- OutKen HamlinSAnkle· DNP
- OutMarc ColomboTAnkle· DNP
- OutMartellus BennettTEConcussion· DNP
- ProbableDeMarcus WareLBWrist· Full
- ProbableDeon AndersonRBKnee· Full
- ProbableGerald SensabaughSThumb· Full
- ProbableJason WittenTEFoot· Full
- ProbableTerence NewmanCBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:36 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q1 4:30 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:16 | 13 | 64 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q2 10:18 | 15 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 2:13 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:42 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q3 10:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 9:29 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q3 7:19 | 11 | 99 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q4 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q4 10:56 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 9:13 | 14 | 73 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| DAL | Q4 1:56 | 9 | 91 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| LAC | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/30 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 4 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 6 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.