Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/30 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 4 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 6 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.