Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
47
Model margin
+3.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. SD are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 27/37 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 9 | 81 | 2 |
| Terrance Williams | 7 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.