Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
47
Model margin
+3.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cowboys
- OutMiles AustinWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDwayne HarrisWRHip· Limited
- ProbableDeMarcus WareDENeck· Limited
- ProbableErnie SimsLBGroin· Full
- ProbableMorris ClaiborneCBShoulder· Full
Chargers
- OutMalcom FloydWRNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulChad RinehartGToe· DNP
- DoubtfulJeromey ClaryGCollarbone· DNP
- QuestionableKing DunlapTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableShareece WrightCBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTConcussion· Full
- ProbableDonald ButlerLBGroin· Full
- ProbableManti Te'oLBFoot· Full
- ProbableNick HardwickCShin· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. SD are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:06 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 7:05 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:45 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 2:08 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:10 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 9:02 | 3 | 4 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:38 | 5 | 36 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 5:11 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:36 | 5 | 29 | Opp touchdown | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:19 | 7 | 66 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| DAL | Q3 9:32 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 21–20 |
| LAC | Q3 6:09 | 13 | 81 | Field goal | 21–23 |
| DAL | Q4 14:46 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 21–23 |
| LAC | Q4 10:02 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–30 |
| DAL | Q4 6:54 | 13 | 63 | Turnover | 21–30 |
| LAC | Q4 2:42 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 21–30 |
| DAL | Q4 1:02 | 4 | 34 | End of half | 21–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 27/37 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 9 | 81 | 2 |
| Terrance Williams | 7 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.