2017 · Week 12

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

28·6

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.008
  • 44.9%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.082EPA / rush+0.027
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.86CPOE-0.45
  • 40.7%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.85
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LAC @ DAL34–17CHARGERS
2023 · W6DAL @ LAC20–17DAL
2021 · W2DAL @ LAC20–17DAL
2013 · W4DAL @ SD21–30CHARGERS
2009 · W14SD @ DAL20–17CHARGERS
2005 · W1DAL @ SD28–24DAL
2001 · W2SD @ DAL32–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DAL
DALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:58775Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 8:58924Punt0–0
LACQ1 3:46992Turnover on downs0–0
DALQ2 13:28823Punt0–0
LACQ2 8:551462Field goal3–0
DALQ2 1:56628Punt3–0
LACQ2 0:1600End of half3–0
LACQ3 15:001077Touchdown9–0
DALQ3 8:59832Punt9–0
LACQ3 5:45892Touchdown16–0
DALQ3 1:461155Touchdown16–6
LACQ4 12:48675Touchdown22–6
DALQ4 9:58662Opp touchdown28–6
DALQ4 7:41314Turnover28–6
LACQ4 6:421047End of half28–6

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers27/3343430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon21653.10
Austin Ekeler6152.50
Travis Benjamin166.00
Philip Rivers5-5-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen11141721
Hunter Henry55761
Tyrell Williams23581
Austin Ekeler33550
Travis Benjamin33500
Melvin Gordon33230
Antonio Gates0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/2717902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rod Smith9414.61
Alfred Morris9364.00
Terrance Williams166.00
Ryan Switzer1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams45540
Jason Witten77440
Dez Bryant35370
Cole Beasley23190
Alfred Morris11130
Rod Smith2270
Brice Butler1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.95