Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.008
- 44.9%Success rate43.8%
- +0.191EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.027
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.86CPOE-0.45
- 40.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.87Points / drive1.85
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. DAL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 27/33 | 434 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 11 | 14 | 172 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/27 | 179 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.95