Closing spread
SD -5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44 points. SD are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:01 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 6:53 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:00 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 3:10 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:34 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 12:33 | 5 | 34 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:46 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q2 2:07 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| DAL | Q3 10:31 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LAC | Q3 5:41 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 21–24 |
| DAL | Q3 0:12 | 11 | 11 | Punt | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 10:03 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 21–24 |
| DAL | Q4 8:32 | 10 | 44 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| LAC | Q4 3:06 | 12 | 69 | Turnover | 28–24 |
| DAL | Q4 0:22 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 28–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/24 | 226 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 26 | 93 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.