2001 · Week 4

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

15·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Trent Dilfer

Husky Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

35

Model margin

+7.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.282EPA / play-0.018
  • 40.8%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.233EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.375EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 26.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 0.28Points / drive1.20
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SEA @ JAX20–12SEA
2021 · W8JAX @ SEA7–31SEA
2017 · W14SEA @ JAX24–30JAX
2013 · W3JAX @ SEA17–45SEA
2009 · W5JAX @ SEA0–41SEA
2005 · W1SEA @ JAX14–26JAX
2000 · W11SEA @ JAX28–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–SEA
JAXQ1 15:001160Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 9:12877Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 6:1133Punt3–7
SEAQ1 5:04763Touchdown3–14
JAXQ1 2:06966Turnover3–14
SEAQ2 12:4934Punt3–14
JAXQ2 10:57418Field goal6–14
SEAQ2 8:4100Touchdown12–14
JAXQ2 8:28118Touchdown12–14
SEAQ2 8:19672Touchdown12–21
JAXQ2 5:06816Missed field goal12–21
SEAQ2 1:54318Turnover12–21
JAXQ2 0:433-5End of half12–21
SEAQ3 15:0038Punt12–21
JAXQ3 14:0937Punt12–21
SEAQ3 13:0538Punt12–21
JAXQ3 11:24419Field goal15–21
SEAQ3 9:261061Missed field goal15–21
JAXQ3 3:5230Punt15–21
SEAQ3 3:2757Punt15–21
JAXQ3 0:4548Turnover15–21
SEAQ4 13:451050Field goal15–24
JAXQ4 7:39637Turnover on downs15–24
SEAQ4 5:00530Punt15–24
JAXQ4 2:5343Punt15–24
SEAQ4 2:053-3Punt15–24
JAXQ4 0:2816End of half15–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell21/3923310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elvis Joseph12393.30
Stacey Mack8172.10
Mark Brunell111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell713970
Jimmy Smith610700
Elvis Joseph22191
Damon Jones12180
Sean Dawkins24120
Stacey Mack2290
Kyle Brady1580

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer15/2321911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander311765.72
Trent Dilfer591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Engram55710
Darrell Jackson35480
Itula Mili22421
Koren Robinson23380
Shaun Alexander24150
Christian Fauria1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%5.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

5.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.91