Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
35
Model margin
+7.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play-0.018
- 40.8%Success rate38.9%
- -0.233EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 0.28Points / drive1.20
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 21/39 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Joseph | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 7 | 13 | 97 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 15/23 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 31 | 176 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Trent Dilfer | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
5.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.91