Closing spread
SEA -19.5
Total
39
Model margin
+7.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.059
- 38.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.101
- 6.6%Explosive rate10.9%
- -4.13CPOE+5.19
- 31.0%Third-down rate38.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.03Points / drive2.17
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 18/38 | 235 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 43 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 8 | 15 | 143 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 5 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Reisner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/21 | 202 | 4 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 7/8 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 5 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 5 | 7 | 79 | 2 |
| Luke Willson | 5 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.51