2013 · Week 3

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

17·45

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

SEA -19.5

Total

39

Model margin

+7.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.059
  • 38.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.101
  • 6.6%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -4.13CPOE+5.19
  • 31.0%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.03Points / drive2.17
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SEA @ JAX20–12SEA
2021 · W8JAX @ SEA7–31SEA
2017 · W14SEA @ JAX24–30JAX
2009 · W5JAX @ SEA0–41SEA
2005 · W1SEA @ JAX14–26JAX
2001 · W4JAX @ SEA15–24SEA
2000 · W11SEA @ JAX28–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:3333Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:31771Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 8:043-1Punt0–7
SEAQ1 6:58521Punt0–7
JAXQ1 3:563-11Punt0–7
SEAQ1 2:22640Touchdown0–14
JAXQ2 14:2632Punt0–14
SEAQ2 12:23519Field goal0–17
JAXQ2 9:40827Punt0–17
SEAQ2 5:28739Turnover0–17
JAXQ2 2:30726Turnover0–17
SEAQ2 0:44579Touchdown0–24
JAXQ2 0:1016End of half0–24
JAXQ3 15:00412Turnover0–24
SEAQ3 13:07328Touchdown0–31
JAXQ3 11:41838Punt0–31
SEAQ3 8:0035Turnover0–31
JAXQ3 6:3122Touchdown7–31
SEAQ3 6:2030Punt7–31
JAXQ3 5:183-6Punt7–31
SEAQ3 3:54558Touchdown7–38
JAXQ3 1:28460Field goal10–38
SEAQ3 0:06513Punt10–38
JAXQ4 12:15948Touchdown17–38
SEAQ4 9:06580Touchdown17–45
JAXQ4 6:32859Turnover17–45
SEAQ4 3:40423End of half17–45

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne18/3823502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew19432.31
Chad Henne252.50
Jordan Todman252.51
Denard Robinson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts8151430
Stephen Burton59420
Ace Sanders23250
Maurice Jones-Drew25190
Clay Harbor0100
D.J. Williams0100
Allen Reisner0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2120241
Tarvaris Jackson7/812910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17694.10
Christine Michael9374.10
Golden Tate22914.50
Russell Wilson2147.00
Robert Turbin351.70
Tarvaris Jackson320.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate58880
Sidney Rice57792
Luke Willson55760
Doug Baldwin12351
Kellen Davis22310
Jermaine Kearse11170
Zach Miller2352
Robert Turbin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +19.53.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%2.3%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.7%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.51