Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.010
- 40.0%Success rate41.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.071
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 40.9%Third-down rate42.8%
- 52.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.33Points / drive1.87
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.074EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:42 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:38 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 2:13 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:24 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 7:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:08 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 3:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SEA | Q2 1:16 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| JAX | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 14–21 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 42 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| SEA | Q3 12:08 | 16 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| JAX | Q3 4:17 | 10 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 21–21 |
| SEA | Q4 13:39 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 21–21 |
| JAX | Q4 8:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–21 |
| SEA | Q4 7:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–21 |
| JAX | Q4 5:46 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–21 |
| SEA | Q4 4:23 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| JAX | Q4 2:01 | 11 | 73 | End of half | 28–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/33 | 231 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 24 | 80 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 6 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Derrick Mayes | 4 | 9 | 39 | 1 |
| Christian Fauria | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| James Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 24/33 | 340 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 6 | 6 | 156 | 1 |
| Jimmy Smith | 10 | 14 | 117 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.91