2025 · Week 6

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

20·12

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapJaguars
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.039
  • 46.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.073
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.54CPOE-1.56
  • 40.9%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 2.22Points / drive2.30
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W8JAX @ SEA7–31SEA
2017 · W14SEA @ JAX24–30JAX
2013 · W3JAX @ SEA17–45SEA
2009 · W5JAX @ SEA0–41SEA
2005 · W1SEA @ JAX14–26JAX
2001 · W4JAX @ SEA15–24SEA
2000 · W11SEA @ JAX28–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–JAX
JAXQ1 15:004-3Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:3033Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:05727Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:34414Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:38966Touchdown0–6
SEAQ1 1:14966Field goal3–6
JAXQ2 10:383-8Punt9–6
SEAQ2 8:42161Touchdown10–6
JAXQ2 8:34630Punt10–6
SEAQ2 6:4133Punt10–6
JAXQ2 5:061141Missed field goal10–6
SEAQ2 0:58525Field goal13–6
JAXQ2 0:1000End of half13–6
SEAQ3 15:00877Touchdown20–6
JAXQ3 10:14512Punt20–6
SEAQ3 7:09521Punt20–6
JAXQ3 5:031587Touchdown20–12
SEAQ4 13:003-1Punt20–12
JAXQ4 10:4935Punt20–12
SEAQ4 9:1133Punt20–12
JAXQ4 7:37625Punt20–12
SEAQ4 5:44414Punt20–12
JAXQ4 4:033-8Punt20–12
SEAQ4 2:53464End of half20–12

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2729520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III10343.40
Zach Charbonnet12242.00
Sam Darnold420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba8131621
AJ Barner33710
Cooper Kupp23401
Zach Charbonnet11130
Elijah Arroyo1260
Kenneth Walker III1130
Tory Horton0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence27/4225820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne12272.30
Bhayshul Tuten2147.00
Trevor Lawrence393.00
Dyami Brown177.00
LeQuint Allen Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.810901
Parker Washington24290
Travis Etienne45280
Tim Patrick11261
Hunter Long23190
Johnny Mundt12140
Bhayshul Tuten23140
Dyami Brown25130
LeQuint Allen Jr.12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.90