Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.039
- 46.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.073
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.54CPOE-1.56
- 40.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 2.22Points / drive2.30
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/27 | 295 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 13 | 162 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 3 | 71 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tory Horton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 27/42 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 8 | 10 | 90 | 1 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Hunter Long | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.90