2017 · Week 14

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·30

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

41

Model margin

+4.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapJaguars
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.020
  • 41.3%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.52CPOE-2.97
  • 37.4%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.81
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SEA @ JAX20–12SEA
2021 · W8JAX @ SEA7–31SEA
2013 · W3JAX @ SEA17–45SEA
2009 · W5JAX @ SEA0–41SEA
2005 · W1SEA @ JAX14–26JAX
2001 · W4JAX @ SEA15–24SEA
2000 · W11SEA @ JAX28–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:43729Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:23873Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 6:2643Punt0–3
JAXQ1 3:48839Punt0–3
SEAQ2 14:34722Punt0–3
JAXQ2 10:26425Punt0–3
SEAQ2 8:47625Turnover0–3
JAXQ2 6:08518Punt0–3
SEAQ2 4:00954Missed field goal0–3
JAXQ2 0:1600End of half0–3
SEAQ3 15:0020Turnover0–3
JAXQ3 14:37552Touchdown0–10
SEAQ3 12:02865Field goal3–10
JAXQ3 8:3000Touchdown3–10
SEAQ3 8:23225Touchdown10–10
JAXQ3 7:32175Touchdown10–17
SEAQ3 7:2134Punt10–23
JAXQ3 5:4011Touchdown10–24
SEAQ3 5:37733Turnover10–24
JAXQ3 2:351266Field goal10–27
SEAQ4 10:04161Touchdown17–27
JAXQ4 9:48854Field goal17–30
SEAQ4 4:05279Touchdown24–30
JAXQ4 3:4235Punt24–30
SEAQ4 2:3941Turnover on downs24–30
JAXQ4 2:17312End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/3127133

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis15664.40
Russell Wilson55010.00
J.D. McKissic3155.00
Tyler Lockett11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett45901
Doug Baldwin36781
Paul Richardson37721
J.D. McKissic55200
Luke Willson11120
Jimmy Graham0200
Nick Vannett0100
Mike Davis12-10

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles18/2726820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette241014.21
Chris Ivory6488.00
T.J. Yeldon294.50
Blake Bortles7-2-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole33991
Dede Westbrook58811
Marqise Lee56650
Leonard Fournette46180
Larry Pinkard1150
Marcedes Lewis0200
James O'Shaughnessy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.30