Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.020
- 41.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.52CPOE-2.97
- 37.4%Third-down rate36.9%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.68Points / drive1.81
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/31 | 271 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 18/27 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 24 | 101 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 7 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 3 | 99 | 1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Larry Pinkard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.30