Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
44
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.107
- 43.2%Success rate40.9%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.082
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.59CPOE-1.58
- 46.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.59Points / drive1.38
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 18/31 | 188 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torry Holt | 7 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/30 | 241 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 8 | 98 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 5 | 7 | 77 | 2 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| John Owens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.08