2009 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

0·41

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

44

Model margin

+1.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.107
  • 43.2%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.082
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +1.59CPOE-1.58
  • 46.1%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.38
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SEA @ JAX20–12SEA
2021 · W8JAX @ SEA7–31SEA
2017 · W14SEA @ JAX24–30JAX
2013 · W3JAX @ SEA17–45SEA
2005 · W1SEA @ JAX14–26JAX
2001 · W4JAX @ SEA15–24SEA
2000 · W11SEA @ JAX28–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00729Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:05417Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:581054Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 6:19968Turnover on downs0–3
SEAQ1 2:30520Punt0–3
JAXQ1 0:1031Punt0–3
SEAQ2 14:4033Punt0–3
JAXQ2 13:5932Punt0–3
SEAQ2 13:071238Field goal0–6
JAXQ2 7:593-3Punt0–6
SEAQ2 6:15448Touchdown0–13
JAXQ2 4:433-5Punt0–13
SEAQ2 3:06361Touchdown0–20
JAXQ2 2:08312Punt0–20
SEAQ2 1:2223End of half0–20
JAXQ3 15:00739Turnover0–20
SEAQ3 11:20432Touchdown0–27
JAXQ3 10:0830Punt0–27
SEAQ3 8:58848Touchdown0–34
JAXQ3 5:541265Opp touchdown0–41
JAXQ4 14:0133Punt0–41
SEAQ4 11:531446End of half0–41

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard18/3118800
Luke McCown1/1200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew12342.80
Rashad Jennings231.50
David Garrard111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torry Holt711950
Jarett Dillard23290
Mike Thomas12280
Maurice Jones-Drew55230
Marcedes Lewis38130
Zach Miller1220

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck18/3024140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James16462.90
Justin Forsett6437.20
Julius Jones12342.80
Matt Hasselbeck3237.70
Seneca Wallace3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson68982
T.J. Houshmandzadeh57772
John Carlson23310
Deion Branch24230
Edgerrin James1170
Julius Jones1220
John Owens0100
Justin Forsett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.08