2005 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

14·26

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

40

Model margin

+1.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapJaguars
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.026
  • 49.3%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.205EPA / dropback+0.113
  • +0.100EPA / rush-0.079
  • 11.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 40.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 78.4%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.68
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.066

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–2 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6SEA @ JAX20–12SEA
2021 · W8JAX @ SEA7–31SEA
2017 · W14SEA @ JAX24–30JAX
2013 · W3JAX @ SEA17–45SEA
2009 · W5JAX @ SEA0–41SEA
2001 · W4JAX @ SEA15–24SEA
2000 · W11SEA @ JAX28–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–JAX
SEAQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
JAXQ1 14:52636Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 11:03536Punt0–3
JAXQ1 8:541062Field goal0–6
SEAQ1 3:49975Touchdown7–6
JAXQ2 14:52514Punt7–6
SEAQ2 12:58733Turnover7–6
JAXQ2 9:2338Missed field goal7–6
SEAQ2 7:1331Punt7–6
JAXQ2 6:19574Touchdown7–13
SEAQ2 4:17780Touchdown14–13
JAXQ2 0:47414End of half14–13
JAXQ3 15:001278Touchdown14–20
SEAQ3 8:39510Punt14–20
JAXQ3 6:34740Punt14–20
SEAQ3 1:4632Punt14–20
JAXQ3 0:463-2Punt14–20
SEAQ4 14:391035Punt14–20
JAXQ4 9:04427Punt14–20
SEAQ4 6:2910Turnover14–20
JAXQ4 6:2034Field goal14–23
SEAQ4 4:32311Turnover14–23
JAXQ4 3:3838Field goal14–26
SEAQ4 1:55942Turnover14–26
JAXQ4 0:0200End of half14–26

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck21/3724623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander14735.20
Matt Hasselbeck2168.00
Maurice Morris263.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich17/3125220
Matt Jones1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor20763.80
Matt Jones22814.00
Byron Leftwich492.30
LaBrandon Toefield441.00
Alvin Pearman122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.93