Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
44
Model margin
+4.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.042
- 44.0%Success rate43.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.113EPA / rush+0.026
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.53CPOE+4.08
- 35.6%Third-down rate37.3%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.33Points / drive2.12
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–2 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. SEA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 32/54 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 6 | 12 | 38 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/24 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 12 | 13 | 142 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 6 | 43 | 2 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.19
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+4.35