2001 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.025
- 42.5%Success rate39.6%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.085
- 11.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 45.8%Third-down rate35.3%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 1.58Points / drive1.43
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 10/16 | 100 | 0 | 2 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1/1 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 17 | 143 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/40 | 283 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 10 | 16 | 159 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Frank Murphy | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.42