2026 · Week 6
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapBuccaneers
- -0.251EPA / play-0.081
- 33.8%Success rate51.8%
- -0.251EPA / dropback-0.168
- -0.252EPA / rush+0.118
- 6.2%Explosive rate5.4%
- +1.23CPOE+14.02
- 25.0%Third-down rate50.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.00Points / drive1.44
- 1.5%Turnover rate7.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.78
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.32