2026 · Week 6

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

26·19

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jalon Daniels

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.081
  • 42.3%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback-0.130
  • +0.043EPA / rush-0.011
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.45CPOE-2.76
  • 36.8%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.86
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.5 points. TB are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6TB @ PIT18–20PIT
2018 · W3PIT @ TB30–27PIT
2014 · W4TB @ PIT27–24TB
2010 · W3PIT @ TB38–13PIT
2006 · W13TB @ PIT3–20PIT
2002 · W16PIT @ TB17–7PIT
2001 · W6PIT @ TB17–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TB
TBQ1 15:003-14Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:4832Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:5035Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:5110Turnover0–0
TBQ1 10:45514Field goal0–3
PITQ1 7:51740Turnover on downs0–3
TBQ1 3:41938Touchdown0–10
PITQ2 14:5238Punt0–10
TBQ2 13:02420Punt0–10
PITQ2 11:30636Missed field goal0–10
TBQ2 7:11633Field goal0–13
PITQ2 4:083-13Punt0–13
TBQ2 1:5236Punt0–13
PITQ2 1:28643Field goal3–13
PITQ3 15:0032Punt3–13
TBQ3 14:041670Field goal3–16
PITQ3 5:0234Punt3–16
TBQ3 3:1435Punt3–16
PITQ3 2:14953Touchdown10–16
TBQ4 13:4833Turnover10–16
PITQ4 13:09829Field goal13–16
TBQ4 8:083-1Punt13–16
PITQ4 7:03925Field goal16–16
TBQ4 1:5520Turnover16–16
PITQ4 1:3832Field goal19–16
TBQ4 1:21430Field goal19–19
PITQ4 0:0800End of half19–19
PITOT1270Touchdown26–19
TBOT1015Turnover on downs26–19

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers33/4925321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren14503.60
Rico Dowdle7405.70
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf1115930
Germie Bernard1112871
Jaylen Warren24280
Darnell Washington46251
Pat Freiermuth23110
Rico Dowdle3490

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalon Daniels22/4316412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving19462.40
Jalon Daniels4399.80
Kenny Gainwell2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka716481
Ted Hurst III36400
Chris Godwin Jr.48370
Bauer Sharp11210
Kenny Gainwell1170
Tez Johnson2370
Cade Otton1240
Bucky Irving2330
Jalon Daniels11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.52
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.25