2018 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

30·27

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

55

Model margin

+0.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.045
  • 47.5%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.229
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +1.39CPOE+3.11
  • 43.9%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 73.7%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.93
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.5 points. TB are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6PIT @ TB26–19PIT
2022 · W6TB @ PIT18–20PIT
2014 · W4TB @ PIT27–24TB
2010 · W3PIT @ TB38–13PIT
2006 · W13TB @ PIT3–20PIT
2002 · W16PIT @ TB17–7PIT
2001 · W6PIT @ TB17–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TB
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:4332Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:52425Turnover0–0
TBQ1 9:55553Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 7:21375Touchdown6–7
TBQ1 5:48732Punt6–7
PITQ1 1:59972Field goal9–7
TBQ2 12:14211Turnover9–7
PITQ2 11:20233Touchdown16–7
TBQ2 10:33753Turnover16–7
PITQ2 8:0456Punt16–7
TBQ2 6:0320Turnover16–7
PITQ2 5:453-7Punt16–7
TBQ2 3:3720Opp touchdown23–7
TBQ2 2:50560Field goal23–10
PITQ2 1:151074Touchdown30–10
TBQ2 0:0600End of half30–10
TBQ3 15:001480Field goal30–13
PITQ3 7:071046Missed field goal30–13
TBQ3 1:061373Touchdown30–20
PITQ4 11:06512Punt30–20
TBQ4 8:40992Touchdown30–27
PITQ4 5:43639Punt30–27
TBQ4 3:0230Punt30–27
PITQ4 2:36335End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger30/3835331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner15614.10
Stevan Ridley3186.00
Ben Roethlisberger4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster9111160
Vance McDonald441121
Antonio Brown69501
James Conner56340
James Washington22250
Ryan Switzer3391
Jesse James1170
Xavier Grimble0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick30/5041133

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber8334.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick5275.40
Adam Humphries144.00
Jacquizz Rodgers2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans6111371
Chris Godwin Jr.510741
O.J. Howard68720
DeSean Jackson35370
Cameron Brate34341
Adam Humphries35300
Jacquizz Rodgers23180
Shaun Wilson2290
Peyton Barber0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.91