2018 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
55
Model margin
+0.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.045
- 47.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.229
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.39CPOE+3.11
- 43.9%Third-down rate46.7%
- 73.7%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.23Points / drive1.93
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 30/38 | 353 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 4 | 112 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| James Conner | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 30/50 | 411 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 11 | 137 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 6 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Shaun Wilson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.91