2002 · Week 16

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

17·7

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -4.5

Total

38

Model margin

-1.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.043
  • 43.3%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.019
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.146
  • 9.7%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.22
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.206

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.5 points. TB are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6PIT @ TB26–19PIT
2022 · W6TB @ PIT18–20PIT
2018 · W3PIT @ TB30–27PIT
2014 · W4TB @ PIT27–24TB
2010 · W3PIT @ TB38–13PIT
2006 · W13TB @ PIT3–20PIT
2001 · W6PIT @ TB17–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TB
PITQ1 15:00681Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 12:0124Opp touchdown14–0
PITQ1 11:1000Opp touchdown14–0
TBQ1 11:1034Punt14–0
PITQ1 9:28870Field goal17–0
TBQ1 4:241049Turnover17–0
PITQ2 14:53526Punt17–0
TBQ2 11:5730Punt17–0
PITQ2 11:2936Punt17–0
TBQ2 9:28515Punt17–0
PITQ2 7:19936Turnover17–0
TBQ2 2:561153Punt17–0
PITQ2 0:2300End of half17–0
TBQ3 15:0039Punt17–0
PITQ3 13:1457Punt17–0
TBQ3 10:493-1Punt17–0
PITQ3 9:23619Punt17–0
TBQ3 6:401387Turnover17–0
PITQ3 0:09635Punt17–0
TBQ4 12:0935Punt17–0
PITQ4 10:461139Turnover on downs17–0
TBQ4 3:341052Touchdown17–7
PITQ4 1:14310End of half17–7

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox17/2323610
Antwaan Randle El1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis26662.50
Amos Zereoue5234.60
Antwaan Randle El144.00
Tommy Maddox2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress551270
Hines Ward66780
Amos Zereoue34180
Antwaan Randle El12111
Matt Cushing1140
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala0100
Jerame Tuman0100
Jerome Bettis11-20

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson12/1815910
Shaun King9/267301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun King3237.70
Michael Pittman4205.00
Rob Johnson155.00
Aaron Stecker1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson8141321
Keenan McCardell612450
Joe Jurevicius25280
Ken Dilger12110
Rickey Dudley2480
Michael Pittman1340
Karl Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.50
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.68