2002 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
-1.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.043
- 43.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.9%
- 42.2%Third-down rate35.3%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 1.71Points / drive1.22
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 17/23 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 26 | 66 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 5 | 5 | 127 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 6 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Matt Cushing | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 12/18 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 9/26 | 73 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 8 | 14 | 132 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 6 | 12 | 45 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.68