2014 · Week 4

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

27·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PIT -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.111EPA / play+0.118
  • 38.5%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.084
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.50CPOE+5.59
  • 36.6%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.26
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.5 points. PIT are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6PIT @ TB26–19PIT
2022 · W6TB @ PIT18–20PIT
2018 · W3PIT @ TB30–27PIT
2010 · W3PIT @ TB38–13PIT
2006 · W13TB @ PIT3–20PIT
2002 · W16PIT @ TB17–7PIT
2001 · W6PIT @ TB17–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-11Turnover0–0
TBQ1 13:4529Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 13:0134Punt7–0
TBQ1 11:2558Field goal10–0
PITQ1 10:01968Field goal10–3
TBQ1 6:193-2Punt10–3
PITQ1 4:58980Touchdown10–10
TBQ1 0:15622Punt10–10
PITQ2 12:231583Touchdown10–17
TBQ2 4:58627Punt10–17
PITQ2 1:53629Missed field goal10–17
TBQ3 15:00875Touchdown17–17
PITQ3 12:271180Touchdown17–24
TBQ3 7:50731Turnover17–24
PITQ3 4:38625Punt17–24
TBQ3 1:161168Field goal20–24
PITQ4 11:37935Punt20–24
TBQ4 7:061266Turnover on downs20–24
PITQ4 1:4438Punt20–24
TBQ4 0:40446Touchdown27–24
PITQ4 0:071-11End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon21/4230221
Bobby Rainey0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin13403.11
Solomon Patton11919.00
Bobby Rainey420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Louis Murphy611990
Mike Evans47651
Austin Seferian-Jenkins37440
Vincent Jackson310321
Russell Shepard22300
Bobby Rainey12160
Doug Martin22160
Brandon Myers0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4031430
Antonio Brown1/11700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell19633.30
LeGarrette Blount4256.30
Ben Roethlisberger242.00
Will Johnson100.00
Markus Wheaton1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown7111312
Heath Miller1011851
Markus Wheaton46570
Le'Veon Bell67460
Lance Moore11120
Justin Brown1250
Dri Archer1110
Will Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.92
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.96