2014 · Week 4
Final
Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.118
- 38.5%Success rate48.4%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.084
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.50CPOE+5.59
- 36.6%Third-down rate45.6%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.33Points / drive2.26
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. PIT are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 21/42 | 302 | 2 | 1 |
| Bobby Rainey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Solomon Patton | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Murphy | 6 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 10 | 32 | 1 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/40 | 314 | 3 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 11 | 131 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 10 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Brown | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.92
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.96