2010 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Charlie Batch

38·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -2

Total

33

Model margin

+3.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.046
  • 40.3%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.133
  • 10.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +3.44CPOE+2.31
  • 44.1%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.88
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.5 points. TB are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6PIT @ TB26–19PIT
2022 · W6TB @ PIT18–20PIT
2018 · W3PIT @ TB30–27PIT
2014 · W4TB @ PIT27–24TB
2006 · W13TB @ PIT3–20PIT
2002 · W16PIT @ TB17–7PIT
2001 · W6PIT @ TB17–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TB
PITQ1 15:0023Turnover0–0
TBQ1 14:0839Field goal0–3
PITQ1 12:1036Punt0–3
TBQ1 10:2336Punt0–3
PITQ1 8:46245Touchdown7–3
TBQ1 7:531579Field goal7–6
PITQ2 14:08667Touchdown14–6
TBQ2 10:19431Turnover14–6
PITQ2 8:02244Touchdown21–6
TBQ2 7:15615Punt21–6
PITQ2 4:181079Touchdown28–6
TBQ2 0:1600End of half28–6
TBQ3 15:003-4Punt28–6
PITQ3 12:48526Turnover on downs28–6
TBQ3 9:5161Punt28–6
PITQ3 6:44753Field goal31–6
TBQ3 2:23563Opp touchdown38–6
TBQ4 14:44841Punt38–6
PITQ4 11:35864Turnover38–6
TBQ4 6:03859Touchdown38–6
TBQ4 3:0213Touchdown38–6
TBQ4 2:1521Touchdown38–13
PITQ4 1:5400End of half38–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch12/1718632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall191437.51
Isaac Redman5316.20
Charlie Batch5265.20
Mewelde Moore144.00
Mike Wallace1-1-1.00
Hines Ward1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace341002
Hines Ward33341
Heath Miller22250
Antwaan Randle El11140
Isaac Redman1190
Mewelde Moore2440
David Johnson0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman20/3118401
Josh Johnson6/66700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount6274.51
Josh Freeman6152.50
Earnest Graham2136.50
Cadillac Williams6132.20
Josh Johnson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earnest Graham44570
Mike Williams56550
Cadillac Williams57330
Arrelious Benn33330
Kellen Winslow36240
Jerramy Stevens11220
Sammie Stroughter46170
Micheal Spurlock12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.82
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.39