2010 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PIT -2
Total
33
Model margin
+3.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.046
- 40.3%Success rate42.0%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.133
- 10.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +3.44CPOE+2.31
- 44.1%Third-down rate42.5%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 12/17 | 186 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 19 | 143 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 4 | 100 | 2 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 20/31 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Johnson | 6/6 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39