2006 · Week 13
Final
Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 42°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play+0.004
- 37.6%Success rate43.1%
- -0.208EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -4.51CPOE+1.04
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.2%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 0.82Points / drive1.68
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–1 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.5 points. PIT are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:56 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:29 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:56 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:05 | 5 | 27 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 0:29 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 12:59 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 10:37 | 11 | 45 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 4:37 | 6 | 48 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:56 | 6 | 23 | End of half | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q3 13:51 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 10:31 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q3 9:33 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 6:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q3 4:58 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 2:00 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| TB | Q4 14:52 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q4 12:48 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| TB | Q4 11:09 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q4 9:42 | 7 | 30 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| TB | Q4 4:37 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q4 3:46 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| TB | Q4 1:56 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 3–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 20/34 | 175 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12/25 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 22 | 61 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.06