2006 · Week 13

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Bruce Gradkowski

3·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 42°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -9

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.186EPA / play+0.004
  • 37.6%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.208EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.085
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -4.51CPOE+1.04
  • 37.4%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 43.2%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.68
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 6–1 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. PIT are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6TB @ PIT18–20PIT
2018 · W3PIT @ TB30–27PIT
2014 · W4TB @ PIT27–24TB
2010 · W3PIT @ TB38–13PIT
2002 · W16PIT @ TB17–7PIT
2001 · W6PIT @ TB17–10PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bruce Gradkowski20/3417503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Earnest Graham4358.80
Cadillac Williams11272.50
Bruce Gradkowski6264.30
Joey Galloway177.00
Michael Clayton133.00
Michael Pittman1-1-1.00

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger12/2519821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker22612.80
Najeh Davenport681.30
Ben Roethlisberger221.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.06