2022 · Week 6

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

18·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TB -10

Total

47

Model margin

+2.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.012
  • 44.0%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.208EPA / rush+0.006
  • 6.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.30CPOE+1.33
  • 38.1%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.65
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 7–1 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.5 points. PIT are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6PIT @ TB26–19PIT
2018 · W3PIT @ TB30–27PIT
2014 · W4TB @ PIT27–24TB
2010 · W3PIT @ TB38–13PIT
2006 · W13TB @ PIT3–20PIT
2002 · W16PIT @ TB17–7PIT
2001 · W6PIT @ TB17–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–PIT
TBQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PITQ1 14:021256Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 7:381155Field goal3–7
PITQ1 2:503-9Punt3–7
TBQ1 1:251050Field goal6–7
PITQ2 11:011254Field goal6–10
TBQ2 4:0738Punt6–10
PITQ2 2:4232Punt6–10
TBQ2 2:0259Punt6–10
PITQ2 0:4631Punt6–10
TBQ2 0:23215Field goal9–10
PITQ3 15:0035Field goal9–13
TBQ3 13:551564Field goal12–13
PITQ3 7:24726Punt12–13
TBQ3 4:14416Punt12–13
PITQ3 2:0735Punt12–13
TBQ3 0:3038Punt12–13
PITQ4 13:38871Touchdown12–20
TBQ4 9:551478Touchdown18–20
PITQ4 4:38862End of half18–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/4024310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette21633.00
Rachaad White4123.00
Tom Brady100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.612950
Mike Evans44420
Leonard Fournette66381
Cade Otton23230
Russell Gage24200
Cameron Brate23140
Rachaad White34110
Breshad Perriman0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky9/1214410
Kenny Pickett11/186710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris14423.00
Kenny Pickett2168.00
Diontae Johnson284.00
Chase Claypool188.00
Mitchell Trubisky650.80
Jaylen Warren221.00
George Pickens111.00
Steven Sims1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Claypool77961
Diontae Johnson57280
George Pickens36270
Najee Harris2371
Zach Gentry1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -104.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.62