2022 · Week 6
Final
Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -10
Total
47
Model margin
+2.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.012
- 44.0%Success rate45.1%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.006
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.30CPOE+1.33
- 38.1%Third-down rate43.5%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.63Points / drive1.65
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 6–1 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.7 points. PIT are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/40 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 9/12 | 144 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 11/18 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 7 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62