Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
38
Model margin
+2.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.125
- 39.3%Success rate36.1%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.132
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- 28.9%Third-down rate32.7%
- 48.3%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
- 1.12Points / drive0.93
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 25/41 | 233 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 9 | 11 | 108 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clint Stoerner | 9/19 | 93 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Clint Stoerner | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
6.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.68
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.75