2001 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

3·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Clint Stoerner

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

38

Model margin

+2.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.028EPA / play-0.125
  • 39.3%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback-0.132
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • 28.9%Third-down rate32.7%
  • 48.3%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
  • 1.12Points / drive0.93
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 13–7 since 1999

ARI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.7 points. DAL are 9-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ARI @ DAL33–30ARI
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DAL
ARIQ1 15:00839Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:33415Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:011062Field goal3–0
DALQ1 3:0635Punt3–0
ARIQ1 1:20414Turnover3–0
DALQ1 0:10743Turnover3–0
ARIQ2 11:55624Punt3–0
DALQ2 8:021374Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 1:09737Turnover3–3
DALQ2 0:061-2End of half3–3
DALQ3 15:00626Touchdown3–10
ARIQ3 11:3200Punt3–10
DALQ3 11:2033Punt3–10
ARIQ3 10:14514Punt3–10
DALQ3 6:53619Punt3–10
ARIQ3 2:5830Opp touchdown3–17
DALQ3 1:5500Opp touchdown3–17
ARIQ3 1:551274Turnover on downs3–17
DALQ4 11:1036Punt3–17
ARIQ4 9:33514Turnover on downs3–17
DALQ4 7:58628Turnover3–17
ARIQ4 4:17714Turnover on downs3–17
DALQ4 2:2958End of half3–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer25/4123302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Plummer4358.80
Michael Pittman16291.80
David Boston11212.00
Thomas Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston9111080
Frank Sanders59560
Thomas Jones45210
Michael Pittman25160
Terry Hardy11110
Tywan Mitchell2580
MarTay Jenkins1250

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Clint Stoerner9/199301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith21834.00
Clint Stoerner7233.31
Troy Hambrick4184.50
Michael Wiley11212.00
Raghib Ismail199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail37390
Joey Galloway37280
Emmitt Smith11110
Michael Wiley1180
Jackie Harris1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

6.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.68
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.75