Closing spread
MIA -10
Total
34.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.195EPA / play-0.023
- 35.9%Success rate41.2%
- -0.169EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- 30.3%Third-down rate41.1%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 0.78Points / drive1.31
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.016EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 9/21 | 158 | 0 | 1 |
| Dameyune Craig | 4/8 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Lytle | 2/4 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Dameyune Craig | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Byrd | 3 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 20/33 | 287 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 18 | 37 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Olindo Mare | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 5 | 8 | 102 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.40