2001 · Week 8

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

6·23

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

MIA -10

Total

34.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.195EPA / play-0.023
  • 35.9%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 30.3%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.31
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.016EPA / play allowed-0.050

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIA @ CAR24–27CAR
2023 · W6CAR @ MIA21–42MIA
2021 · W12CAR @ MIA10–33MIA
2017 · W10MIA @ CAR21–45CAR
2013 · W12CAR @ MIA20–16CAR
2009 · W11MIA @ CAR24–17MIA
2005 · W3CAR @ MIA24–27MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIA
CARQ1 15:00610Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:071565Field goal0–3
CARQ1 3:54770Field goal3–3
MIAQ1 0:19750Turnover on downs3–9
CARQ2 12:0210Opp touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 11:5200Opp touchdown3–10
CARQ2 11:52772Field goal6–10
MIAQ2 6:56413Punt6–10
CARQ2 5:10757Missed field goal6–10
MIAQ2 2:20732Field goal6–13
CARQ2 1:0134Punt6–13
MIAQ2 0:111-1End of half6–13
MIAQ3 15:003-14Punt6–13
CARQ3 13:0834Punt6–13
MIAQ3 12:08523Punt6–13
CARQ3 9:07518Punt6–13
MIAQ3 6:27519Turnover6–13
CARQ3 4:0948Turnover on downs6–13
MIAQ3 2:57660Touchdown6–20
CARQ4 14:55944Punt6–20
MIAQ4 10:02883Field goal6–23
CARQ4 6:0337Punt6–23
MIAQ4 4:1638Punt6–23
CARQ4 2:353-13Punt6–23
MIAQ4 1:172-1End of half6–23

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke9/2115801
Dameyune Craig4/83400
Matt Lytle2/4700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley12494.10
Dameyune Craig3206.70
Chris Weinke11616.00
Steve Smith11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaac Byrd34800
Muhsin Muhammad48450
Steve Smith11290
Wesley Walls35230
Richard Huntley24130
Kris Mangum1230
Donald Hayes0600

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler20/3328711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith18372.10
Travis Minor4133.30
James McKnight199.00
Jay Fiedler441.00
Olindo Mare1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden581020
James McKnight45670
Chris Chambers47540
Travis Minor24200
Jeff Ogden11180
Hunter Goodwin1270
Jed Weaver1160
Lamar Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.40