Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.040
- 41.2%Success rate40.9%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.48
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 10:09 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q1 7:11 | 10 | 29 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q1 3:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q1 1:50 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q1 0:55 | 2 | 21 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| CAR | Q1 0:10 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–14 |
| MIA | Q2 12:23 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CAR | Q2 11:24 | 11 | 46 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| MIA | Q2 5:44 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| CAR | Q2 3:39 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q2 0:54 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 17–21 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q3 10:19 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 17–21 |
| CAR | Q3 7:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q3 6:11 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 17–21 |
| CAR | Q3 3:18 | 5 | -5 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q3 0:26 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| CAR | Q4 14:53 | 7 | 10 | Punt | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q4 12:21 | 9 | 87 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| CAR | Q4 7:32 | 3 | 53 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| MIA | Q4 7:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 24–24 |
| CAR | Q4 6:07 | 8 | 26 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| MIA | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 14 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| CAR | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/35 | 285 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/33 | 171 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61