Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.040
- 41.2%Success rate40.9%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.48
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.118EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/35 | 285 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/33 | 171 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61