Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.040
- 42.1%Success rate41.1%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.009
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.02CPOE-0.18
- 44.3%Third-down rate35.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.03Points / drive1.51
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/38 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 10 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 28/42 | 310 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 10 | 127 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Egnew | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.03