2013 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

20·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CAR -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

-0.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.040
  • 42.1%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.009
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +1.02CPOE-0.18
  • 44.3%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.51
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIA @ CAR24–27CAR
2023 · W6CAR @ MIA21–42MIA
2021 · W12CAR @ MIA10–33MIA
2017 · W10MIA @ CAR21–45CAR
2009 · W11MIA @ CAR24–17MIA
2005 · W3CAR @ MIA24–27MIA
2001 · W8CAR @ MIA6–23MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
CARQ1 13:38626Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 10:453-12Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:1348Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 6:58377Touchdown3–7
CARQ1 5:3937Punt3–7
MIAQ1 4:0236Punt3–7
CARQ1 2:43421Punt3–7
MIAQ2 14:48465Field goal3–10
CARQ2 12:343-3Punt3–10
MIAQ2 10:56838Punt3–10
CARQ2 6:0130Punt3–10
MIAQ2 4:23428Field goal3–13
CARQ2 2:1310Turnover3–13
MIAQ2 2:0136Field goal3–16
CARQ2 1:01657Field goal6–16
CARQ3 15:001488Touchdown13–16
MIAQ3 8:08919Punt13–16
CARQ3 3:3233Punt13–16
MIAQ3 2:33615Punt13–16
CARQ4 14:10620Punt13–16
MIAQ4 11:14742Missed field goal13–16
CARQ4 7:224-2Punt13–16
MIAQ4 5:36627Punt13–16
CARQ4 4:131370Touchdown20–16
MIAQ4 0:43316End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton19/3817411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton7517.31
DeAngelo Williams10313.10
Jonathan Stewart7314.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith58690
Brandon LaFell25360
Greg Olsen59341
DeAngelo Williams23160
Ted Ginn310110
Jonathan Stewart1130

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill28/4231011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Tannehill4369.00
Daniel Thomas382.70
Lamar Miller1080.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace5101271
Brian Hartline55780
Lamar Miller44390
Charles Clay47270
Marlon Moore22200
Dion Sims1160
Michael Egnew1150
Marcus Thigpen1240
Daniel Thomas2220
Rishard Matthews3720

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.03