2021 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

10·33

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

41

Model margin

+5.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.2%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.180
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -7.50CPOE-0.02
  • 36.1%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.58
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIA @ CAR24–27CAR
2023 · W6CAR @ MIA21–42MIA
2017 · W10MIA @ CAR21–45CAR
2013 · W12CAR @ MIA20–16CAR
2009 · W11MIA @ CAR24–17MIA
2005 · W3CAR @ MIA24–27MIA
2001 · W8CAR @ MIA6–23MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00818Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:0934Opp touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:11675Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 6:01722Punt7–7
CARQ1 1:45731Turnover7–7
MIAQ2 12:4635Punt7–7
CARQ2 11:5031Turnover7–7
MIAQ2 10:2739Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 9:013-2Punt7–14
MIAQ2 7:19673Touchdown7–21
CARQ2 4:2630Punt7–21
MIAQ2 3:26617Punt7–21
CARQ2 1:34513Punt7–21
MIAQ2 0:53641Turnover10–21
CARQ2 0:0100Field goal10–21
CARQ3 15:00729Punt10–21
MIAQ3 11:351475Touchdown10–27
CARQ3 4:114-14Punt10–27
MIAQ3 2:321034Field goal10–30
CARQ4 10:5854Turnover10–30
MIAQ4 9:03923Field goal10–33
CARQ4 3:411057Turnover on downs10–33
MIAQ4 1:0800End of half10–33

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton5/219202
PJ Walker5/108701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey10353.50
Chuba Hubbard263.00
Cam Newton351.71
Ameer Abdullah242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore4101030
Brandon Zylstra12240
Ameer Abdullah26200
Robbie Chosen14150
Alex Erickson11130
Tommy Tremble1340
Christian McCaffrey0100
Ian Thomas0300
Chuba Hubbard0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa27/3123010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin16493.12
Phillip Lindsay12423.50
Salvon Ahmed5173.40
Durham Smythe231.50
Tua Tagovailoa400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle9101371
Durham Smythe55320
Albert Wilson56170
Mike Gesicki33170
Isaiah Ford12110
Salvon Ahmed1190
Preston Williams1140
Myles Gaskin2230
Mack Hollins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.64