Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
41
Model margin
+5.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.046
- 41.2%Success rate41.8%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.180
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.7%
- -7.50CPOE-0.02
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.1%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.43Points / drive1.58
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 5/21 | 92 | 0 | 2 |
| PJ Walker | 5/10 | 87 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 27/31 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 9 | 10 | 137 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.64