2017 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

21·45

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -8

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.018
  • 39.2%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.040
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.096
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -0.06CPOE-2.85
  • 31.0%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.87
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.5 points. CAR are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIA @ CAR24–27CAR
2023 · W6CAR @ MIA21–42MIA
2021 · W12CAR @ MIA10–33MIA
2013 · W12CAR @ MIA20–16CAR
2009 · W11MIA @ CAR24–17MIA
2005 · W3CAR @ MIA24–27MIA
2001 · W8CAR @ MIA6–23MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CAR
MIAQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:03630Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:5831Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:231042Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 1:50929Punt0–3
CARQ2 13:161285Touchdown0–10
MIAQ2 6:591073Touchdown7–10
CARQ2 2:12843Punt7–10
MIAQ2 0:4710Turnover7–10
CARQ2 0:41420Touchdown7–17
MIAQ2 0:1900End of half7–17
CARQ3 15:00878Touchdown7–24
MIAQ3 11:50620Turnover on downs7–24
CARQ3 9:34448Touchdown7–31
MIAQ3 7:15375Touchdown14–31
CARQ3 5:47575Touchdown14–38
MIAQ3 3:07730Punt14–38
CARQ3 0:031178Touchdown14–45
MIAQ4 8:201170Touchdown21–45
CARQ4 4:05351End of half21–45

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3721321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake78211.71
Damien Williams9192.10
Jay Cutler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills58670
DeVante Parker69660
Jarvis Landry510421
Damien Williams23200
Kenyan Drake22100
Julius Thomas2581

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3525440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart171106.50
Cam Newton59519.00
Cameron Artis-Payne7689.71
Christian McCaffrey5234.61
Derek Anderson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess56922
Curtis Samuel57450
Russell Shepard37400
Ed Dickson35331
Christian McCaffrey37271
Brenton Bersin12120
Kaelin Clay1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50