Closing spread
CAR -8
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.018
- 39.2%Success rate41.3%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.096
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- -0.06CPOE-2.85
- 31.0%Third-down rate43.2%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. CAR are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/37 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 82 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 10 | 42 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/35 | 254 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 95 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 7 | 68 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 5 | 6 | 92 | 2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50