2009 · Week 11

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

24·17

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

+4.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.058
  • 45.9%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.013EPA / dropback-0.092
  • +0.023EPA / rush-0.022
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +0.24CPOE-3.62
  • 48.8%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.39
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.5 points. CAR are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIA @ CAR24–27CAR
2023 · W6CAR @ MIA21–42MIA
2021 · W12CAR @ MIA10–33MIA
2017 · W10MIA @ CAR21–45CAR
2013 · W12CAR @ MIA20–16CAR
2005 · W3CAR @ MIA24–27MIA
2001 · W8CAR @ MIA6–23MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CAR
CARQ1 15:001151Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 9:31514Punt0–3
CARQ1 6:38521Punt0–3
MIAQ1 3:43427Punt0–3
CARQ1 1:33727Punt0–3
MIAQ2 12:5633Punt0–3
CARQ2 11:54617Punt0–3
MIAQ2 9:251196Touchdown7–3
CARQ2 3:573-5Punt7–3
MIAQ2 2:55829Touchdown14–3
CARQ2 0:5738End of half14–3
MIAQ3 15:003-1Punt14–3
CARQ3 13:23556Turnover14–3
MIAQ3 10:43617Punt14–3
CARQ3 6:0838Punt14–3
MIAQ3 4:29417Punt14–3
CARQ3 2:46746Field goal14–6
MIAQ4 14:211157Field goal17–6
CARQ4 7:39958Touchdown17–14
MIAQ4 5:18459Touchdown24–14
CARQ4 3:551050Field goal24–17
MIAQ4 1:4148Turnover on downs24–17
CARQ4 0:39346End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne17/2917210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams221195.42
Chad Henne100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess66630
Brian Hartline24470
Ted Ginn46320
Ricky Williams24191
Greg Camarillo1140
Joey Haynos0300
Kory Sperry0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme19/4222711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams131229.40
Jonathan Stewart12433.60
Jake Delhomme2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith715871
Gary Barnidge22460
Dante Rosario47400
Muhsin Muhammad35270
Tyrell Sutton23180
DeAngelo Williams1290
Jeff King0100
Dwayne Jarrett0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.31