Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.058
- 45.9%Success rate40.6%
- -0.013EPA / dropback-0.092
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.022
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- +0.24CPOE-3.62
- 48.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.82Points / drive1.39
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. CAR are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 17/29 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 22 | 119 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kory Sperry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/42 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 122 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 15 | 87 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31