2025 · Week 5

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

24·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIA -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.021EPA / play-0.025
  • 42.1%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.072
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.82CPOE+1.44
  • 34.1%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.80
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.5 points. CAR are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6CAR @ MIA21–42MIA
2021 · W12CAR @ MIA10–33MIA
2017 · W10MIA @ CAR21–45CAR
2013 · W12CAR @ MIA20–16CAR
2009 · W11MIA @ CAR24–17MIA
2005 · W3CAR @ MIA24–27MIA
2001 · W8CAR @ MIA6–23MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CAR
MIAQ1 15:001048Field goal3–0
CARQ1 9:03624Turnover3–0
MIAQ1 6:311458Touchdown10–0
CARQ2 14:5524Turnover10–0
MIAQ2 14:01644Touchdown17–0
CARQ2 10:481281Touchdown17–7
MIAQ2 3:243-5Punt17–7
CARQ2 1:471075Field goal17–10
CARQ3 15:00444Field goal17–13
MIAQ3 12:15417Punt17–13
CARQ3 9:38419Punt17–13
MIAQ3 6:57513Punt17–13
CARQ3 4:25626Punt17–13
MIAQ3 0:0333Punt17–13
CARQ4 13:2234Punt17–13
MIAQ4 12:21420Punt17–13
CARQ4 10:12961Touchdown17–20
MIAQ4 6:10357Touchdown24–20
CARQ4 4:42878Touchdown24–27
MIAQ4 1:593-7Punt24–27
CARQ4 1:0335End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa27/3625630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane10161.60
Tua Tagovailoa155.00
Ollie Gordon II3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle691101
Darren Waller55781
De'Von Achane67301
Julian Hill45220
Tanner Conner22160
Malik Washington4500

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young19/3019821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle232069.01
Trevor Etienne4225.50
Jimmy Horn Jr.2105.00
Bryce Young310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan68730
Xavier Legette23311
Rico Dowdle34280
Jimmy Horn Jr.23210
James Mitchell11110
Brycen Tremayne1190
Hunter Renfrow1370
Tommy Tremble1270
Trevor Etienne1170
Mitchell Evans1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.19