Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play-0.025
- 42.1%Success rate43.7%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.82CPOE+1.44
- 34.1%Third-down rate35.7%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.92Points / drive1.80
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. CAR are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 27/36 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 9 | 110 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Julian Hill | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 19/30 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 23 | 206 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Trevor Etienne | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.19