Closing spread
MIA -14
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play+0.095
- 38.2%Success rate47.3%
- -0.163EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.009
- 6.3%Explosive rate11.5%
- -1.80CPOE+4.40
- 34.8%Third-down rate42.5%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.00Points / drive2.34
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 23/38 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 11 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/31 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike White | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 17 | 115 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Chris Brooks | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mike White | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 10 | 163 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 9 | 51 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83