2023 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

21·42

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -14

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.160EPA / play+0.095
  • 38.2%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.009
  • 6.3%Explosive rate11.5%
  • -1.80CPOE+4.40
  • 34.8%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.00Points / drive2.34
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.5 points. MIA are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIA @ CAR24–27CAR
2021 · W12CAR @ MIA10–33MIA
2017 · W10MIA @ CAR21–45CAR
2013 · W12CAR @ MIA20–16CAR
2009 · W11MIA @ CAR24–17MIA
2005 · W3CAR @ MIA24–27MIA
2001 · W8CAR @ MIA6–23MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIA
CARQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:0736Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:00764Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 7:1339Punt7–0
CARQ1 5:271069Touchdown14–0
MIAQ1 0:06975Touchdown14–7
CARQ2 11:13731Turnover on downs14–7
MIAQ2 8:20357Touchdown14–14
CARQ2 7:0034Punt14–14
MIAQ2 5:01972Touchdown14–21
CARQ2 1:54740Missed field goal14–21
MIAQ3 15:0030Punt14–21
CARQ3 14:4066Punt14–21
MIAQ3 11:32986Touchdown14–28
CARQ3 6:211051Turnover on downs14–28
MIAQ3 2:281375Touchdown14–35
CARQ4 12:234-8Punt14–35
MIAQ4 9:43411Punt14–35
CARQ4 7:27827Turnover on downs14–35
MIAQ4 4:4930Opp touchdown21–35
MIAQ4 4:26537Touchdown21–42
CARQ4 2:3146Turnover on downs21–42
MIAQ4 1:5300End of half21–42

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young23/3821710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard19884.61
Raheem Blackshear5183.60
Laviska Shenault Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen11131151
DJ Chark36260
Tommy Tremble22250
Jonathan Mingo23210
Hayden Hurst13160
Laviska Shenault Jr.33150
Raheem Blackshear1140
Chuba Hubbard1120
Terrace Marshall Jr.0300

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/3126230
Mike White0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert171156.82
Chris Brooks6284.70
Salvon Ahmed6233.81
Tua Tagovailoa100.00
Mike White3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill6101631
Jaylen Waddle79511
Braxton Berrios22200
Raheem Mostert33171
Salvon Ahmed35110
Durham Smythe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.83