2001 · Week 8

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

21·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

34

Model margin

+5.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBears
  • -0.113EPA / play-0.063
  • 36.9%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.099
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 31.3%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.28
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.146

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CLE @ CHI3–31CHI
2023 · W15CHI @ CLE17–20CLE
2021 · W3CHI @ CLE6–26CLE
2017 · W16CLE @ CHI3–20CHI
2013 · W15CHI @ CLE38–31CHI
2009 · W8CLE @ CHI6–30CHI
2005 · W5CHI @ CLE10–20CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CHI
CHIQ1 15:002-13Opp touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 14:0500Opp touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 14:05530Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 12:00630Punt7–0
CHIQ1 9:231333Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 3:0130Punt7–0
CHIQ1 2:05630Punt7–0
CLEQ2 14:15521Punt7–0
CHIQ2 11:233-5Punt7–0
CLEQ2 9:5931Punt7–0
CHIQ2 8:29847Punt7–0
CLEQ2 4:48424Punt7–0
CHIQ2 2:371063Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 0:201-1End of half7–7
CLEQ3 15:00757Touchdown14–7
CHIQ3 10:251150Turnover14–7
CLEQ3 4:48492Touchdown21–7
CHIQ3 3:0830Punt21–7
CLEQ3 1:433-3Punt21–7
CHIQ4 14:46611Turnover on downs21–7
CLEQ4 12:1739Punt21–7
CHIQ4 10:391237Turnover on downs21–7
CLEQ4 5:39720Punt21–7
CHIQ4 1:52975Touchdown21–14
CLEQ4 0:2800Touchdown21–14
CHIQ4 0:24347Touchdown21–21
CHIOT38Punt21–21
CLEOT311Opp touchdown21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch14/2321121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson22713.20
Tim Couch1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson58991
Dennis Northcutt24340
Quincy Morgan12280
O.J. Santiago22260
Jamel White13100
James Jackson1170
Aaron Shea1140
Mike Sellers1231

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews30/5035723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas31963.11
James Allen133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez White712920
Marty Booker713851
Anthony Thomas610710
James Allen55651
David Terrell34350
Fred Baxter1560
D'Wayne Bates1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.10
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.15