Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
34
Model margin
+5.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.063
- 36.9%Success rate39.4%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 31.3%Third-down rate33.3%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.05Points / drive1.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 14/23 | 211 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 30/50 | 357 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 31 | 96 | 3.1 | 1 |
| James Allen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez White | 7 | 12 | 92 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 7 | 13 | 85 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| James Allen | 5 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| David Terrell | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.10
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.15