Closing spread
CHI -5.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play-0.112
- 38.4%Success rate38.5%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -5.42CPOE-3.10
- 33.6%Third-down rate34.8%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.07Points / drive1.22
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 18/36 | 182 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matt Dayes | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 14/23 | 193 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 22 | 44 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Cunningham | 2 | 2 | 62 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.34