2017 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

3·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 24°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -5.5

Total

37

Model margin

+3.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBears
  • -0.146EPA / play-0.112
  • 38.4%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -5.42CPOE-3.10
  • 33.6%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.22
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CLE @ CHI3–31CHI
2023 · W15CHI @ CLE17–20CLE
2021 · W3CHI @ CLE6–26CLE
2013 · W15CHI @ CLE38–31CHI
2009 · W8CLE @ CHI6–30CHI
2005 · W5CHI @ CLE10–20CLE
2001 · W8CLE @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CHI
CLEQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:5551Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:17517Punt0–0
CHIQ1 6:31954Touchdown0–6
CLEQ1 1:2032Punt0–6
CHIQ1 0:1338Punt0–6
CLEQ2 13:0232Punt0–6
CHIQ2 12:03426Punt0–6
CLEQ2 9:211250Turnover0–6
CHIQ2 1:57723Punt0–6
CLEQ2 0:31348Field goal3–6
CHIQ2 0:0100End of half3–6
CHIQ3 15:00555Touchdown3–13
CLEQ3 12:2346Punt3–13
CHIQ3 10:571266Touchdown3–20
CLEQ3 3:27772Turnover3–20
CHIQ3 0:19415Punt3–20
CLEQ4 14:0633Punt3–20
CHIQ4 11:433-4Punt3–20
CLEQ4 9:11610Punt3–20
CHIQ4 7:5030Punt3–20
CLEQ4 6:43721Turnover3–20
CHIQ4 4:11714Punt3–20
CLEQ4 0:0514End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer18/3618202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell12443.70
Duke Johnson4205.00
DeShone Kizer382.70
Matt Dayes144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson77810
Ricardo Louis11350
Rashard Higgins23200
Josh Gordon28190
David Njoku13130
Seth DeValve34120
Corey Coleman1630
Isaiah Crowell14-10

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky14/2319300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard22442.02
Mitchell Trubisky7446.31
Tarik Cohen294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benny Cunningham22620
Josh Bellamy34490
Kendall Wright46270
Dion Sims13240
Dontrelle Inman24190
Tarik Cohen22120
Daniel Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.34