Closing spread
CHI -11.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play-0.089
- 35.2%Success rate39.6%
- -0.266EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.135
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -10.33CPOE+0.30
- 32.5%Third-down rate37.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.23Points / drive1.57
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 6/17 | 76 | 0 | 2 |
| Brady Quinn | 1/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Gaines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/30 | 225 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 26 | 90 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 7 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.06