2009 · Week 8

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

6·30

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -11.5

Total

40

Model margin

+5.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBears
  • -0.168EPA / play-0.089
  • 35.2%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.266EPA / dropback-0.064
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.135
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -10.33CPOE+0.30
  • 32.5%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.57
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CLE @ CHI3–31CHI
2023 · W15CHI @ CLE17–20CLE
2021 · W3CHI @ CLE6–26CLE
2017 · W16CLE @ CHI3–20CHI
2013 · W15CHI @ CLE38–31CHI
2005 · W5CHI @ CLE10–20CLE
2001 · W8CLE @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CHI
CLEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:2936Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:5432Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:57310Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:3039Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:27954Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 2:2010Turnover0–3
CHIQ1 2:0232Field goal0–6
CLEQ1 1:13522Turnover0–6
CHIQ2 13:44832Field goal0–9
CLEQ2 8:4337Punt0–9
CHIQ2 6:561156Touchdown0–16
CLEQ2 1:56615End of half0–16
CHIQ3 15:003-1Punt0–16
CLEQ3 12:55530Touchdown6–16
CHIQ3 10:33423Punt6–16
CLEQ3 8:20413Punt6–16
CHIQ3 6:4136Punt6–16
CLEQ3 4:24315Turnover6–16
CHIQ3 3:01449Touchdown6–23
CLEQ3 1:42744Turnover on downs6–23
CHIQ4 13:0034Turnover6–23
CLEQ4 12:03119Turnover6–23
CHIQ4 11:541279Turnover on downs6–23
CLEQ4 4:5030Opp touchdown6–30
CLEQ4 3:1439Punt6–30
CHIQ4 2:31451End of half6–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson6/177602
Brady Quinn1/3900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis16694.30
Josh Cribbs6284.70
Jerome Harrison5193.80
Derek Anderson210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi26280
Josh Cribbs11230
Chansi Stuckey11110
Steve Heiden14100
Mike Furrey1190
Michael Gaines0100
Brian Robiskie0300

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/3022501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte26903.52
Garrett Wolfe55310.60
Jay Cutler5326.40
Devin Hester1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Hester78810
Johnny Knox35440
Greg Olsen34400
Matt Forte23310
Earl Bennett23290
Desmond Clark0400
Garrett Wolfe0100
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.06