Closing spread
CLE -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play+0.014
- 41.4%Success rate43.7%
- -0.077EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- -2.87CPOE-2.26
- 34.7%Third-down rate39.1%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.62Points / drive1.81
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 6/20 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/31 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 81 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.16