2021 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

6·26

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

CLE -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.087EPA / play+0.014
  • 41.4%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.015
  • 7.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -2.87CPOE-2.26
  • 34.7%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.81
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CLE @ CHI3–31CHI
2023 · W15CHI @ CLE17–20CLE
2017 · W16CLE @ CHI3–20CHI
2013 · W15CHI @ CLE38–31CHI
2009 · W8CLE @ CHI6–30CHI
2005 · W5CHI @ CLE10–20CLE
2001 · W8CLE @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001023Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 11:26424Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 8:40834Turnover on downs3–0
CHIQ1 4:183-1Punt3–0
CLEQ1 2:03848Field goal3–3
CHIQ2 12:313-9Punt3–3
CLEQ2 10:13830Punt3–3
CHIQ2 5:37523Punt3–3
CLEQ2 2:541189Touchdown3–10
CHIQ2 0:1914End of half3–10
CHIQ3 15:003-8Punt3–10
CLEQ3 13:58731Field goal3–13
CHIQ3 9:323-1Punt3–13
CLEQ3 7:4631Punt3–13
CHIQ3 5:451027Field goal6–13
CLEQ3 1:43675Touchdown6–20
CHIQ4 14:4654Punt6–20
CLEQ4 13:40537Field goal6–23
CHIQ4 10:403-12Punt6–23
CLEQ4 9:18941Field goal6–26
CHIQ4 3:435-4Turnover on downs6–26
CLEQ4 2:56311End of half6–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields6/206800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery10343.40
Justin Fields3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson26270
David Montgomery24210
Cole Kmet14110
Darnell Mooney1490
Jimmy Graham0100
Marquise Goodwin0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/3124610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb22843.80
Kareem Hunt10818.11
Baker Mayfield4317.80
Odell Beckham Jr.11010.00
D'Ernest Johnson294.50
Case Keenum300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.59770
Kareem Hunt67740
Donovan Peoples-Jones22390
Rashard Higgins22240
Austin Hooper23191
Demetric Felton23130
Harrison Bryant0200
Anthony Schwartz0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.16